Cofounder of Thanefield Capital. Previously a discretionary trader and software engineer. I build trading systems, develop software, and occasionally write about markets, mental models, and interesting problems I encounter.
This site serves as my digital notebook—a collection of thoughts on market dynamics, frameworks for better decision-making, and explorations of whatever captures my curiosity.
Over the past two years, LLMs have been commoditizing depth, and with it the definition of intelligence: the thing that decides who gets the hard problems and whose objection kills a decision. And the smartest people under the old definition will be the last to notice.
I recently read about the sale of a first edition Newton's Principia for $3.7 million, which sounds like a lot of money until you realize that someone paid $23.7 million for CryptoPunk #5822—a 24×24 pixel image of a blue alien wearing a bandana.
More than a year ago, I wrote a collection of heuristics and mental models I rely on when making important decisions. Since then I've continued to ponder the complex psychology of trading, and why most people fail at this beguiling dance with fortune.
This thread is an assortment of mental models and frameworks I've developed and relied on throughout the span of my trading career, with some personal anecdotes mixed in.